Post-2026
Negotiations

Negotiations are underway to establish new operating guidelines for the Colorado River. The current operating guidelines, called the ‘07 Operating Guidelines, expire in 2026. These negotiations will determine how much water leaves Lake Powell and Lake Mead – the country’s two largest reservoirs – and will determine ways to address the imbalance between supply and demand.

The 2007 Interim Guidelines and Their Limitations

The 2007 Interim Guidelines (‘07 Guidelines) have determined operations at Lake Powell and Lake Mead over the past two decades. Developed in response to drought conditions at the start of the century, the ‘07 Guidelines tied together the elevations of Lake Mead and Lake Powell. This mechanism aimed to manage the system more cohesively, but ultimately led to the depletion of both reservoirs. Additionally, the Guidelines enabled Lower Basin States to store “Intentionally Created Surplus” (ICS), effectively creating a water savings account in Lake Mead for Lower Basin water users to call upon.

Fortunately, the interim nature of these guidelines allows the current negotiations to learn from the lessons and failures of the ‘07 Guidelines in practice. The current critically low water levels in both Lake Mead and Lake Powell underscore limitations of the ‘07 Guidelines in addressing a prolonged and severe drought.

The Core Challenge: A Mass Balance Problem

The fundamental issue facing the Colorado River is a mass balance problem: more water is being removed from the system than flows into it naturally. This imbalance between supply and demand depleted the Basin’s primary reservoirs, Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

In June 2022, the Reclamation Commissioner highlighted this crisis, calling for the conservation of 2 to 4 million acre-feet of water annually. To put this volume into perspective, the combined annual water use of the Upper Division States (Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, and Wyoming) typically ranges from 3 to 4 million acre-feet.

an aerial view of Lake Powell

The Interconnected Fate of
Lake Mead & Lake Powell

Water users in the Lower Basin States primarily receive their allocations from Lake Mead. Over the past 20 years, Lake Mead has been unsustainably drawn down, reaching unprecedented low levels. This, in turn, directly impacted Lake Powell due to the operational mechanics of the ‘07 Guidelines.

Under the ‘07 Guidelines, a mechanism known as “balancing” dictates releases between the two reservoirs. When Lake Mead’s elevation drops below certain thresholds, Lake Powell is required to release more water to help stabilize Lake Mead. Consequently, the sustained drawdown of Lake Mead has directly caused both reservoirs to decline in tandem.

The Opportunity for a
Sustainable Future

The good news is that the 2007 Interim Guidelines are set to expire in 2026, presenting a crucial opportunity to establish a more sustainable operational framework for the Colorado River. In the Upper Basin, there is a strong focus on incorporating lessons-learned from the ‘07 Guidelines to build a more resilient future. The core principle behind the Upper Basin’s effort is the recognition that all users in the Basin must “live within the means of what the River provides.” When water is scarce due to limited natural flows, there is no alternative but to reduce water use to align with the actual hydrological conditions.

a section of the Colorado River

The NEPA Process and Basin State Negotiations

The Bureau of Reclamation is currently undertaking a National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process to develop and implement new operational guidelines for Lake Powell and Lake Mead, which will replace the ‘07 Guidelines. Concurrent with this federal process, the Basin States have been actively engaged in negotiations to develop a consensus approach for the future management of the river.

These discussions have been complex and challenging, given the difficult issues and diverse interests at stake. Approximately one year ago, both the Upper Basin and Lower Basin States independently put forward their respective proposals for the federal government to consider as part of its ongoing NEPA review. The goal remains to establish a seven-state consensus approach that ensures the long-term sustainability of the Colorado River for all who depend on it.

The UDS Alternative

The Upper Division States (UDS) Alternative proposes supply-driven operations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead. This means reservoir management would be based on actual hydrological conditions, not solely on downstream demand. Under this approach, water use would align with available supplies: more water could be used in times of healthy reservoirs and good snowpack, while less water would be used during depleted reservoir conditions and extended drought.

The UDS Alternative aims to:

  • Rebuild storage in the reservoirs.
  • Provide greater water security for approximately 40 million people.
  • Offer greater flexibility to protect the environment.
  • Transition to supply-driven operations.
  • Operate within the existing Law of the River framework.

The UDS Alternative also calls for specific adjustments and reductions for Lower Basin water users. It recognizes that a 1.5 million acre-feet adjustment for evaporation and transit losses in the Lower Basin will significantly contribute to protecting the system. It also notes that in some circumstances, further reductions may be necessary.

In the Upper Basin, strict water rights administration will continue, leading to uncompensated reductions for water users as needed.

The UDS Alternative introduces “parallel activities,” including the consideration of voluntary conservation and strategic releases from upstream initial units. Contributions from the Upper Basin will be limited by hydrological conditions: if a water user does not receive water, they cannot conserve it. The alternative explicitly recognizes hydrologic shortages in the Upper Basin, where dry conditions force water users to curtail or cease their use due to strict priority administration by State Engineers. It also highlights that these curtailments are highly variable, changing from year to year and sub-basin to sub-basin depending on localized conditions.

The Lower Basin Alternative

The Lower Basin States’ proposal for post-2026 Colorado River management, released in March 2024, prioritizes addressing the structural deficit in the Lower Basin and shifting away from reliance on reservoir elevations as the sole trigger for operations.

Key elements include:

  • Fixed Reductions for the Lower Basin: The proposal calls for a 1.5 million acre-feet static reduction in Lower Basin State apportionments and deliveries to Mexico under most system conditions.
  • Total System Contents: It proposes basing management decisions and reductions on the total water volume across a larger set of Upper and Lower Basin reservoirs, rather than solely on Lake Mead and Lake Powell elevations or forecasts.
  • Shared Reductions in Critical Conditions: While the Lower Basin takes initial cuts, the proposal includes provisions for additional cuts shared between the Upper and Lower Basins when the total system capacity is below 38%.